Monday, December 21, 2009

Continuing Global Recovery

Portfolio Breakdown:
APP - 7.1%
BAC - 13.8%
TBT - 15.4%
ITUB - 12.8%
AOB - 11.0%
COIN - 1.6%
COINU - 1.2%
TAMB - 23.0%
RIMM - 10.6%
HOGS - 15.5%
SDX - 5.0%
OCNF - 2.2%
BP - 7.3%
MBI - 13.1%
TRLG - 8.0%
TBV - 2.8%
ITUB $25, Dec, sell call - (0.1%)
CAD Cash - 8.3%
USD Cash - (58.7%)

USD/CAD - 1.0655

Portfolio Performance:
Return Since Last Update - (1.97%)
Return Since Inception - 187.42%
S&P 500 - 1102.47
S&P 500 Return (June 30) - 19.98%

The Prior Week of Trading:
I made a few minor changes to the portfolio this week; mostly shifting from winners to underperformers. I sold out of my PRGN position at $5.10, a level that it had previously had resistance. I wanted to move that cash into 3 names which I currently see as undervalued; OCNF, MBI and TBV. OCNF is a fellow container and dry shipper who has not seen any recent love from the market, so I wanted to make it feel welcome in my portfolio. Adjusted tangible book value for OCNF I have calculated at slightly over $3 while the stock is currently trading at $1; on the surface this looks like unbelievable value for a going concern, it is commonplace among shippers to trade at a discount to book value. However, OCNF trades at a substantial discount to BV and forward potential P/E (0.3-0.5 IMO) to its peers. MBI I currently hold in my portfolio and decided to add to the position a couple days after it was announced that it was being removed from the S&P 500; the negative reaction was very large and in my opinion, unwarranted given the size of the move. I welcome the opportunity to hold MBI, one of the surviving stand-alone insurers who has a healthy balance sheet and the opportunity to profit from a recovery at such a steep discount. I also reintroduced TBV into my portfolio after trading it from the $3-$4 range after it dropped into the mid $2's at the end of last week. I can find no definite catalyst for this move, except for continued bearish sentiment on the inability of TBV to beat earnings expectations for the future; Now with such low levels of future expectations, I am willing to take the risk to see this stock into next quarters earnings report.

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