Portfolio Breakdown:
APP - 6.3%
BAC - 12.1%
TBT - 13.5%
ITUB - 10.3%
AOB - 9.8%
COIN - 2.4%
COINU - 1.8%
TAMB - 27.9%
RIMM - 8.2%
HOGS - 13.0%
SDX - 5.4%
OCNF - 3.4%
BP - 6.6%
MBI - 16.4%
TRLG - 7.6%
CAD Cash - 6.6%
USD Cash - (51.2%)
USD/CAD - 1.0545
Portfolio Performance:
Return Since Last Update - 1.59%
Return Since Inception (June 30, 2009) - 221.91%
S&P 500 - 1091.76
S&P 500 Return (June 30, 2009) - 18.81%
The Prior Week of Trading:
The dollar moved up slightly as stocks and commodities crashed after another poor policy objective announcement by US President Obama; It is politically popular to blame banks for everything from the recent recession to the death of disco, but it doesn't hold any truth in reality. A tax on the biggest banks to recoup government TARP money (when all have repaid the loans with interest, ex Citigroup) can only have the ultimate effect of restricting lending and adding costs to end user consumers. Additionally, by restricting the capital base from which a bank can draw from to engage in profitable operations not only hurts the performance of that company, but also adversely affects the economy through dampening the credit creation cycle. This is yet another example of how the Obama administration (and usually government in general) thinks only of what is popular short term sentiment instead of what is good for the economy in the long run. Hopefully the debate over the reappointment of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke doesn't get any more politicized than it already has; in the same vain, a politicized and therefore non-independent Federal Reserve would be the worst thing that could happen now...
My outlook for the future as it relates to my portfolio remains the same; I am concerned about a short term correction but confident in a medium term recovery. Short sellers may be emboldened enough to bring the DJIA down to the 10,000 level but I don't think support will fail there without some negatively newsworthy event. Housing numbers may remain weak and keep a lid on market performance as the lingering effects from the expired government buyers credits have now worn off; although in my opinion, governmnt does too much to support the housing sector as it is. Housing is a relatively small section of the US economy and does not merit the current amount of public resources and backstops attributed to proping up the sector. However, this is a separate discussion for another day.
I am pleased to see TAMB move higher in anticipation of full year results; based upon comparable companies and the trend of earnings and loan losses, I am predicting Q4 EPS to come in close to zero. This should have a very positive effect on the stock, possibly bringing the price to well over $2. Aside from TAMB, the value of most of my positions decreased this past week as both the S&P 500 and DJIA are now in negative territory for 2010. I will continue to hold at these levels as I believe the valuation on the stocks in my portfolio are all very reasonable (otherwise I wouldn't own them!). If a correction persists, I don't expect it to be deep, although sideways trading may prevail for the near term.
Friday, January 22, 2010
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