Portfolio Breakdown:
APP - 3.2%
BAC - 14.0%
TBT - 15.4%
ITUB - 11.5%
AOB - 10.5%
COIN - 1.4%
COINU - 2.1%
TAMB - 26.3%
RIMM - 9.6%
HOGS - 20.6%
SDX - 6.5%
OCNF - 3.6%
BP - 7.3%
MBI - 18.8%
TRLG - 8.4%
CAD Cash - 5.2%
USD Cash - (66.6%)
USD/CAD - 1.0665
Portfolio Performance:
Return Since Last Update - (11.37%)
Return Since Inception (June 30, 2009) - 185.32%
S&P 500 - 1073.87
S&P 500 Return (June 30, 2009) - 16.86%
The Prior Week of Trading:
This was one of my worst weeks since I began tracking the performance of my portfolio; although I am more concerned with long-term value, the short term performance still stings. The broader US averages are clearly in a correction phase that may have further room to the downside. The market has chosen to ignore the fact that around 80% of companies who have reported earnings in the S&P 500 have beaten estimates, although this earnings season was expected to be a positive one given prior year comparisons. It seems as though pundits and traders are trying to find excuses to ignore positive data, citing China credit concerns and ongoing sovereign debt worries in Greece and the EU. A stock market is an ongoing price discovery mechanism and this week it seems to be adjusting itself downwards. This presents a buying opportunity for the value investor as a sinking tide often lowers all ships, regardless of intrinsic value.
TAMB spiked towards $1.60 last week on heavy volume, but has since retreated to below a dollar as investors await earnings; I put in a call to the company yesterday and they told me that they are planning on releasing full year results early next week. I am looking for the company to beat estimates of an 0.85 loss and trend back up towards the $2 mark. HOGS also sold off heavy the past 2 weeks and is sitting around its 200 day moving average; valuation metrics for this company are very compelling and I will look to add to my position if further weakness persists. There is no indication that the company is experiencing financial trouble or deterioration in customer demand. I am looking forward to February starting off better than January ended...
Friday, January 29, 2010
Friday, January 22, 2010
Worst DJIA week since March 2009...
Portfolio Breakdown:
APP - 6.3%
BAC - 12.1%
TBT - 13.5%
ITUB - 10.3%
AOB - 9.8%
COIN - 2.4%
COINU - 1.8%
TAMB - 27.9%
RIMM - 8.2%
HOGS - 13.0%
SDX - 5.4%
OCNF - 3.4%
BP - 6.6%
MBI - 16.4%
TRLG - 7.6%
CAD Cash - 6.6%
USD Cash - (51.2%)
USD/CAD - 1.0545
Portfolio Performance:
Return Since Last Update - 1.59%
Return Since Inception (June 30, 2009) - 221.91%
S&P 500 - 1091.76
S&P 500 Return (June 30, 2009) - 18.81%
The Prior Week of Trading:
The dollar moved up slightly as stocks and commodities crashed after another poor policy objective announcement by US President Obama; It is politically popular to blame banks for everything from the recent recession to the death of disco, but it doesn't hold any truth in reality. A tax on the biggest banks to recoup government TARP money (when all have repaid the loans with interest, ex Citigroup) can only have the ultimate effect of restricting lending and adding costs to end user consumers. Additionally, by restricting the capital base from which a bank can draw from to engage in profitable operations not only hurts the performance of that company, but also adversely affects the economy through dampening the credit creation cycle. This is yet another example of how the Obama administration (and usually government in general) thinks only of what is popular short term sentiment instead of what is good for the economy in the long run. Hopefully the debate over the reappointment of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke doesn't get any more politicized than it already has; in the same vain, a politicized and therefore non-independent Federal Reserve would be the worst thing that could happen now...
My outlook for the future as it relates to my portfolio remains the same; I am concerned about a short term correction but confident in a medium term recovery. Short sellers may be emboldened enough to bring the DJIA down to the 10,000 level but I don't think support will fail there without some negatively newsworthy event. Housing numbers may remain weak and keep a lid on market performance as the lingering effects from the expired government buyers credits have now worn off; although in my opinion, governmnt does too much to support the housing sector as it is. Housing is a relatively small section of the US economy and does not merit the current amount of public resources and backstops attributed to proping up the sector. However, this is a separate discussion for another day.
I am pleased to see TAMB move higher in anticipation of full year results; based upon comparable companies and the trend of earnings and loan losses, I am predicting Q4 EPS to come in close to zero. This should have a very positive effect on the stock, possibly bringing the price to well over $2. Aside from TAMB, the value of most of my positions decreased this past week as both the S&P 500 and DJIA are now in negative territory for 2010. I will continue to hold at these levels as I believe the valuation on the stocks in my portfolio are all very reasonable (otherwise I wouldn't own them!). If a correction persists, I don't expect it to be deep, although sideways trading may prevail for the near term.
APP - 6.3%
BAC - 12.1%
TBT - 13.5%
ITUB - 10.3%
AOB - 9.8%
COIN - 2.4%
COINU - 1.8%
TAMB - 27.9%
RIMM - 8.2%
HOGS - 13.0%
SDX - 5.4%
OCNF - 3.4%
BP - 6.6%
MBI - 16.4%
TRLG - 7.6%
CAD Cash - 6.6%
USD Cash - (51.2%)
USD/CAD - 1.0545
Portfolio Performance:
Return Since Last Update - 1.59%
Return Since Inception (June 30, 2009) - 221.91%
S&P 500 - 1091.76
S&P 500 Return (June 30, 2009) - 18.81%
The Prior Week of Trading:
The dollar moved up slightly as stocks and commodities crashed after another poor policy objective announcement by US President Obama; It is politically popular to blame banks for everything from the recent recession to the death of disco, but it doesn't hold any truth in reality. A tax on the biggest banks to recoup government TARP money (when all have repaid the loans with interest, ex Citigroup) can only have the ultimate effect of restricting lending and adding costs to end user consumers. Additionally, by restricting the capital base from which a bank can draw from to engage in profitable operations not only hurts the performance of that company, but also adversely affects the economy through dampening the credit creation cycle. This is yet another example of how the Obama administration (and usually government in general) thinks only of what is popular short term sentiment instead of what is good for the economy in the long run. Hopefully the debate over the reappointment of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke doesn't get any more politicized than it already has; in the same vain, a politicized and therefore non-independent Federal Reserve would be the worst thing that could happen now...
My outlook for the future as it relates to my portfolio remains the same; I am concerned about a short term correction but confident in a medium term recovery. Short sellers may be emboldened enough to bring the DJIA down to the 10,000 level but I don't think support will fail there without some negatively newsworthy event. Housing numbers may remain weak and keep a lid on market performance as the lingering effects from the expired government buyers credits have now worn off; although in my opinion, governmnt does too much to support the housing sector as it is. Housing is a relatively small section of the US economy and does not merit the current amount of public resources and backstops attributed to proping up the sector. However, this is a separate discussion for another day.
I am pleased to see TAMB move higher in anticipation of full year results; based upon comparable companies and the trend of earnings and loan losses, I am predicting Q4 EPS to come in close to zero. This should have a very positive effect on the stock, possibly bringing the price to well over $2. Aside from TAMB, the value of most of my positions decreased this past week as both the S&P 500 and DJIA are now in negative territory for 2010. I will continue to hold at these levels as I believe the valuation on the stocks in my portfolio are all very reasonable (otherwise I wouldn't own them!). If a correction persists, I don't expect it to be deep, although sideways trading may prevail for the near term.
Friday, January 15, 2010
Holding Steady
Portfolio Breakdown:
APP - 6.3%
BAC - 13.0%
TBT - 13.7%
ITUB - 11.0%
AOB - 10.0%
COIN - 2.6%
COINU - 1.8%
TAMB - 20.7%
RIMM - 8.7%
HOGS - 13.7%
SDX - 6.1%
OCNF - 3.6%
BP - 7.0%
MBI - 18.0%
TRLG - 8.0%
CAD Cash - 6.7%
USD Cash - (50.9%)
USD/CAD - 1.026
Portfolio Performance:
Return Since Last Update - 6.75%
Return Since Inception - 216.87%
S&P 500 - 1136.03
S&P 500 Return (June 30, 2009) - 23.63%
The Prior Week of Trading:
Its funny how Wall St. sentiment can seem to change on a dime; the indices have drifted up on light volume for the past few weeks and it seems as though the prospect of eventual economic recovery was leading the charge. Although, today was a bit different; Intel reported a blowout quarter last night but was greeted with the Bronx cheer as trading began this morning. It seems as though Intel (and the sector) may be a bit tired, as possibly the broad market. JP Morgan reported results that were light on revenues and served to bring down that stock and the industry as a whole. So, is the market tired and poised to double dip... or is this just a small pullback amidst a cyclical bull? Based on one day of trading, only the most foolish amongst us will try to offer a convincing opinion. Given that the path of least resistance has been higher, I will wait until the market decides to ignore the good news and pull back before I get defensive. In the meantime I can do some small things to add protection like writing some covered calls or trimming those positions closest to my price target. I sold out of TBV, a stock I had reentered a couple weeks ago after a quick gain of about 30%; I still think this stock has room to the upside, but am more hesitant about this position as compared to some of my others. MBI has continued its strong performance and I will look to trim this holding if/when it enters the $6 range; I see $7 as possible resistance but will continue to hold MBI as long as the trend line stays in tact.
APP - 6.3%
BAC - 13.0%
TBT - 13.7%
ITUB - 11.0%
AOB - 10.0%
COIN - 2.6%
COINU - 1.8%
TAMB - 20.7%
RIMM - 8.7%
HOGS - 13.7%
SDX - 6.1%
OCNF - 3.6%
BP - 7.0%
MBI - 18.0%
TRLG - 8.0%
CAD Cash - 6.7%
USD Cash - (50.9%)
USD/CAD - 1.026
Portfolio Performance:
Return Since Last Update - 6.75%
Return Since Inception - 216.87%
S&P 500 - 1136.03
S&P 500 Return (June 30, 2009) - 23.63%
The Prior Week of Trading:
Its funny how Wall St. sentiment can seem to change on a dime; the indices have drifted up on light volume for the past few weeks and it seems as though the prospect of eventual economic recovery was leading the charge. Although, today was a bit different; Intel reported a blowout quarter last night but was greeted with the Bronx cheer as trading began this morning. It seems as though Intel (and the sector) may be a bit tired, as possibly the broad market. JP Morgan reported results that were light on revenues and served to bring down that stock and the industry as a whole. So, is the market tired and poised to double dip... or is this just a small pullback amidst a cyclical bull? Based on one day of trading, only the most foolish amongst us will try to offer a convincing opinion. Given that the path of least resistance has been higher, I will wait until the market decides to ignore the good news and pull back before I get defensive. In the meantime I can do some small things to add protection like writing some covered calls or trimming those positions closest to my price target. I sold out of TBV, a stock I had reentered a couple weeks ago after a quick gain of about 30%; I still think this stock has room to the upside, but am more hesitant about this position as compared to some of my others. MBI has continued its strong performance and I will look to trim this holding if/when it enters the $6 range; I see $7 as possible resistance but will continue to hold MBI as long as the trend line stays in tact.
Monday, January 4, 2010
Happy New Year!
Portfolio Breakdown:
APP - 6.6%
BAC - 13.6%
TBT - 15.3%
ITUB - 13.2%
AOB - 11.9%
COIN - 1.7%
COINU - 1.2%
TAMB - 18.5%
RIMM - 9.4%
HOGS - 16.5%
SDX - 6.1%
OCNF - 3.8%
BP - 7.2%
MBI - 15.0%
TRLG - 7.7%
TBV - 3.0%
CAD Cash - 7.2%
USD Cash - (57.9%)
USD/CAD - 1.04
Portfolio Performance:
Return Since Last Update - (0.85%)
Return Since Inception - 196.84%
S&P 500 - 1132.99
S&P 500 Return (June 30) - 23.30%
The Prior Week of Trading:
Firstly, I am updating my holdings and performance as of end of day today (Monday) instead of my usual end of day Friday update due to the New Years holiday weekend. The only changes I made to my portfolio heading into the end of the year was to add to my TAMB and OCNF positions on price weakness. I am watching TAMB closely as they are due to report on their ongoing effort to meet a regulatory order from the FDIC to improve some of their key capital ratios; I expect an update on this situation before the company's scheduled earnings release on January 22, 2010. I did not like how RIMM performed following their positive earnings report this past week and am particularly concerned that the market may view the company as behind the curve in terms of smart-phone innovations; it seems as though the ever-fickle consumers have an appetite for phones that are media friendly, whereas RIMM is more one dimensional focusing on enterprise users. Depending upon my disposition going into some key economic data coming at the end of the week I may switch some of my positions to a more defensive posture; expectations are quite high right now and if employment and retail data comes in soft the market may be in for a correction.
APP - 6.6%
BAC - 13.6%
TBT - 15.3%
ITUB - 13.2%
AOB - 11.9%
COIN - 1.7%
COINU - 1.2%
TAMB - 18.5%
RIMM - 9.4%
HOGS - 16.5%
SDX - 6.1%
OCNF - 3.8%
BP - 7.2%
MBI - 15.0%
TRLG - 7.7%
TBV - 3.0%
CAD Cash - 7.2%
USD Cash - (57.9%)
USD/CAD - 1.04
Portfolio Performance:
Return Since Last Update - (0.85%)
Return Since Inception - 196.84%
S&P 500 - 1132.99
S&P 500 Return (June 30) - 23.30%
The Prior Week of Trading:
Firstly, I am updating my holdings and performance as of end of day today (Monday) instead of my usual end of day Friday update due to the New Years holiday weekend. The only changes I made to my portfolio heading into the end of the year was to add to my TAMB and OCNF positions on price weakness. I am watching TAMB closely as they are due to report on their ongoing effort to meet a regulatory order from the FDIC to improve some of their key capital ratios; I expect an update on this situation before the company's scheduled earnings release on January 22, 2010. I did not like how RIMM performed following their positive earnings report this past week and am particularly concerned that the market may view the company as behind the curve in terms of smart-phone innovations; it seems as though the ever-fickle consumers have an appetite for phones that are media friendly, whereas RIMM is more one dimensional focusing on enterprise users. Depending upon my disposition going into some key economic data coming at the end of the week I may switch some of my positions to a more defensive posture; expectations are quite high right now and if employment and retail data comes in soft the market may be in for a correction.
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